Climate change significantly threatens the Garden Route in South Africa through altered weather patterns, rising temperatures, and intensified extreme events. The region faces vulnerabilities in agriculture, tourism, water security, and coastal ecosystems due to its topography and climate. Observed and projected impacts include droughts, floods, wildfires, and sea level rise, straining infrastructure and biodiversity.

​Changes observed to date

Increased average temperatures, shifts in rainfall seasonality, and more frequent veld fires have already occurred. Storm events with strong winds, severe surges, and rainfall variability with more dry days exacerbate risks. Coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion into freshwater bodies are notable concerns.

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Projected Impacts

By 2050, higher annual temperatures will boost evaporation, reduce agricultural outputs, and threaten food security under high-emission scenarios. Rainfall may decrease in winter peaks but increase in shoulder seasons, linked to shifts in atmospheric systems like the South Atlantic High. Sea levels could rise by one meter around 2100 in areas like Knysna, endangering infrastructure and parks.

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Affected Sectors

• Agriculture: Becoming marginal due to water scarcity and heat, with viability challenges for outdoor crops.

• Tourism: Extreme weather disrupts sites like Tsitsikamma and Garden Route National Parks via fires, surges, and sea rise risks to beaches and properties.

• Water and Infrastructure: Droughts and floods pressure dams, roads, and stormwater systems amid invasive plants fueling fires.​

• Biodiversity: Ecosystem shifts, biome changes, and wildfire damages threaten fragile environments.